Designing effective prompts is essential to guiding large language models (LLMs) toward desired responses. Automated prompt engineering aims to reduce reliance on manual effort by streamlining the design, refinement, and optimization of natural language prompts. This paper proposes an optimal learning framework for automated prompt engineering, designed to sequentially identify effective prompt features while efficiently allocating a limited evaluation budget. We introduce a feature-based method to express prompts, which significantly broadens the search space. Bayesian regression is employed to utilize correlations among similar prompts, accelerating the learning process. To efficiently explore the large space of prompt features for a high quality prompt, we adopt the forward-looking Knowledge-Gradient (KG) policy for sequential optimal learning. The KG policy is computed efficiently by solving mixed-integer second-order cone optimization problems, making it scalable and capable of accommodating prompts characterized only through constraints. We demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms a set of benchmark strategies assessed on instruction induction tasks. The results highlight the advantages of using the KG policy for prompt learning given a limited evaluation budget. Our framework provides a solution to deploying automated prompt engineering in a wider range applications where prompt evaluation is costly.

We review our recent work in the area of autonomous materials research, highlighting the coupling of machine learning methods and models and more problem-aware modeling. We review the general Bayesian framework for closed-loop design employed by many autonomous materials platforms. We then provide examples of our work on such platforms. We finally review our approaches to extend current statistical and ML models to better reflect problem-specific structure including the use of physics-based models and incorporation of operational considerations into the decision-making procedure.

Truckload brokerages, a $100 billion/year industry in the U.S., plays the critical role of matching shippers with carriers, often to move loads several days into the future. Brokerages not only have to find companies that will agree to move a load, the brokerage often has to find a price that both the shipper and carrier will agree to. The price not only varies by shipper and carrier, but also by the traffic lanes and other variables such as commodity type. Brokerages have to learn about shipper and carrier response functions by offering a price and observing whether each accepts the quote. We propose a knowledge gradient policy with bootstrap aggregation for high-dimensional contextual settings to guide price experimentation by maximizing the value of information. The learning policy is tested using a newly developed, carefully calibrated fleet simulator that includes a stochastic lookahead policy that simulates fleet movements, as well as the stochastic modeling of driver assignments and the carrier's load commitment policies with advance booking.

We consider the problem of sequentially making decisions that are rewarded by "successes" and "failures" which can be predicted through an unknown relationship that depends on a partially controllable vector of attributes for each instance. The learner takes an active role in selecting samples from the instance pool. The goal is to maximize the probability of success in either offline (training) or online (testing) phases. Our problem is motivated by real-world applications where observations are time-consuming and/or expensive. We develop a knowledge gradient policy using an online Bayesian linear classifier to guide the experiment by maximizing the expected value of information of labeling each alternative. We provide a finite-time analysis of the estimated error and show that the maximum likelihood estimator based produced by the KG policy is consistent and asymptotically normal. We also show that the knowledge gradient policy is asymptotically optimal in an offline setting. This work further extends the knowledge gradient to the setting of contextual bandits. We report the results of a series of experiments that demonstrate its efficiency.

The Knowledge Gradient (KG) policy was originally proposed for online ranking and selection problems but has recently been adapted for use in online decision making in general and multi-armed bandit problems (MABs) in particular. We study its use in a class of exponential family MABs and identify weaknesses, including a propensity to take actions which are dominated with respect to both exploitation and exploration. We propose variants of KG which avoid such errors. These new policies include an index heuristic which deploys a KG approach to develop an approximation to the Gittins index. A numerical study shows this policy to perform well over a range of MABs including those for which index policies are not optimal. While KG does not make dominated actions when bandits are Gaussian, it fails to be index consistent and appears not to enjoy a performance advantage over competitor policies when arms are correlated to compensate for its greater computational demands.